- The Fed is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today. Bitcoin fell below $113,000 as markets await Powell’s 2:30 PM ET press conference.
- Powell’s guidance on December policy matters more than today’s rate cut. Traders want clarity on whether the Fed will continue easing or pause.
- Analysts warn of high volatility and recommend avoiding leverage. Bitcoin must hold $113,500 or risk dropping to $111,000.
The Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting concludes today with a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut. Market participants place nearly 100% odds on the reduction, which would bring the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. However, the real focus lies on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference, where traders expect guidance on the direction of December’s monetary policy.
Bitcoin dropped 1% to trade below $113,000 ahead of the announcement, while gold rebounded above $4,000. The crypto market’s volatile reaction reflects broader uncertainty about the Fed’s future policy path, despite the rate cut being factored into market pricing.
Powell’s Commentary Expected to Drive Market Direction
The FOMC statement at 2:00 PM ET will reveal the rate decision, but Powell’s subsequent press conference holds greater weight for investors. His remarks will clarify whether the central bank maintains its easing trajectory or signals a pause in December.
Tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. ET: Chair Powell hosts live #FOMC press conference: https://t.co/fXt6ew9fZ8 pic.twitter.com/eodOpS0HV0
— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) October 28, 2025
September’s FOMC minutes showed officials remain open to additional rate cuts this year. Powell has emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach as labor market conditions evolve. The Fed chair also indicated the quantitative tightening program may end soon, a development that Wall Street analyst Nick Timiraos compared to searching for an off-ramp on an unfamiliar highway.
Economic data remains sparse due to the ongoing government shutdown between Republicans and Democrats. Last week’s September CPI report showed headline and core inflation falling below forecasts. Annual CPI inflation, however, rose from 2.9% to 3%, complicating the Fed’s decision-making process.
The CME FedWatch tool currently projects a 25-basis-point cut in December, which would lower rates to 3.50% to 3.75%. Powell’s comments today will either confirm or challenge this market expectation.
Crypto Analysts Warn of Heightened Volatility
Analyst Michael van de Poppe cautioned that crypto markets will experience extreme volatility during the FOMC events. He advised traders to avoid leveraged positions, as price swings could move rapidly in either direction.
Van de Poppe maintains that Bitcoin remains undervalued compared to other assets. He views the $112,000 level as a buying opportunity, projecting a move toward $123,000 following the FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin in 12-Hour Timeframe. Source: Michael van de Poppe
Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin’s rejection at the $116,000 resistance level occurred despite the launch of new Solana ETFs and record stock market highs. He warned that this divergence presents a concerning outlook for crypto markets.
Pillows identified $113,500 as a critical level Bitcoin must reclaim. Failure to maintain this support could result in a decline to fill the CME gap at $111,000. He recommends entering positions after the gap fills, targeting a recovery to $121,000.
The FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference stream live on the Federal Reserve’s official website and YouTube channel. The Fed will publish the statement, implementation note, and projection materials on its website following the announcement.
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